The Case of the Disappearing Clutch

I’ll clutch-and clutch-

Next-One-Might be the golden touch-

Could take it-

Diamonds-Wait-

I’m diving-just a little late-

But stars-go slow-for night-

“I’ll Clutch-and Clutch,” Emily Dickinson

Mudflappin: All the Yosemite-Samming in the world can't improve Peavy's luck. (Brian Kersey/GI)

[Updated through games of September 4.]

Half and Half

The White Sox arrived back home after being driven out of Detroit by pitchforks and torches (although not quite as horrifyingly as a year earlier) with one of the sweetest salves available, a series vs. the Minnesota Twins.

Hectored: It took someone outside the rotation to snap
the Sox out of their sorry clutch streak. (Brian Kersey/GI)

Still, in a series that begged sweep, the White Sox could only split the first two games. And it was a newcomer thrown into the morass of awful clutch starts, Hector Santiago, who righted the rotation and put the South Siders back up a game on those bully Bengals.

Santiago’s 4-2 win on Sept. 3 was a tidy and efficient five innings, restoring calm after the Motor City storm. He provided the first clutch quality start in three weeks with the effort; hopefully manager Robin Ventura’s pregame proclamation that Santiago would be heading back to the bullpen and ceding his next start on Sunday to Dylan Axelrod has been reconsidered (the White Sox are listing “TBA” at the moment).

Unfortunately, the slumping Jose Quintana gave any momentum right away in Tuesday’s game, beginning a chain of pummeling that left outfielder Dewayne Wise finishing up the game. His game score of 16 was eight points lower than the previous-worst clutch start, Francisco Liriano’s no-decision in a 9-7 loss to the Oakland A’s on August 11.

So the average game score in two eminently winnable, clutch games against the Twins was 38. Yikes.

Jaked Up

Jake Peavy, is well-admired as a fighter. He’s the kind of hurler who’s seized a de facto captaincy among pitchers with his vocal leadership, frank talk, and, at least in the first half of the season, a willingness to shoulder the burden of a young starting staff hopscotching through the minefield of major league hitters.

A reputation of not being too strong in the clutch has dogged Peavy in his career. And judging by won-loss record, as easy as it is to root for a fella willing to cuss seemingly on alternating pitches of a big game, he has faltered when the chips are down.

But the following study may get Peavy off the hook.

While the “clutchosity” of a pitcher can be measured in a number of ways, looking at the leverage he faces in games is a thumbnail spot to start. But given that a starter, in particular, will often create the very high leverage he is then challenged to pitch out of (with, say, a hit or a walk), leverage index alone isn’t a square measure.

In the 135 White Sox games of 2012, there have been 53 “clutch” starts so far. That includes every game past April where the White Sox found themselves within a game of first place, heading north or south. It also includes the six interleague games with the Cubbies, which everyone admits count a mere game in the standing but much more given the fan interest. Any game of 40,000-plus fans packs with it a playoff atmosphere, so such games are included as well.

Pitcher	Clutch GS	White Sox Record	Pitcher Record (W-L-ND)	Average Game Score (Avg=50)	Average Leverage
John Danks	2	1-1	1-1-0	62.0	0.84
Jake Peavy	12	5-7	3-6-3	57.4	0.94
Gavin Floyd	10	5-5	3-4-3	50.4	0.94
Philip Humber	6	5-1	4-1-1	56.8	1.03
Chris Sale	9	6-3	6-2-1	63.7	0.92
Jose Quintana	8	5-3	2-2-4	51.3	1.08
Zach Stewart	1	0-1	0-1-0	28.0	0.61
Dylan Axelrod	2	1-1	0-0-2	61.0	1.09
Franciso Liriano	2	0-2	0-1-1	32.0	1.15
Hector Santiago	1	1-0	1-0-0	60.0	1.10
Totals/Avg	53	29-24	20-20-14	55.0	0.98

A game score of 50 or better is considered a quality start. “High pressure” leverage is greater than 1.00.

Humber’s showing here is somewhat surprising, as is Axelrod’s, in an admittedly small sample. But how pathetic is Peavy’s record, 3-6 with three no-decisions, while Floyd and his average game score thisclose to falling short of a quality start sits at 3-4 with three no-decisions. Even Quintana has mustered a .500 record (and the White Sox a winning one) in spite of an average clutch game score falling dangerously near the minimum for a quality start.

I’ve designated 15 starts as “double-clutch,” with extra pressure attached to them:

April 6—season opener (Danks)

April 13—home opener (Peavy)

June 12—at Cards (Quintana)

June 16—at Dodgers (Humber)

June 18-20—vs. Cubs (Stewart-Peavy-Floyd)

June 25—Twins (Peavy)

July 3—Rangers (Sale)

July 20-21—at Tigers (Peavy and Sale)

July 27—at Rangers (Sale)

September 1—at Tigers (Liriano)

September 2—at Tigers (Sale)

September 3—Twins (Santiago)

The selection of such superclutch games is somewhat arbitrary, but are based on some fairly standard guidelines. Counting double-clutch games twice—remember, this is simply a look at clutch performance so creating “fake” stats is of lessened consequence—here’s how the White Sox starters morph.

Pitcher	Clutch GS	White Sox Record	Pitcher Record	Average Game Score	Average Leverage
John Danks	3	1-2	1-2-0	59.3	0.85
Jake Peavy	16	6-10	4-9-3	58.2	0.92
Gavin Floyd	11	6-5	4-4-3	52.0	0.94
Philip Humber	7	6-1	5-1-1	53.7	1.10
Chris Sale	13	8-5	8-4-1	59.9	0.93
Jose Quintana	9	6-3	3-2-4	50.9	1.09
Zach Stewart	2	0-2	0-2-0	28.0	0.61
Dylan Axelrod	2	1-1	0-0-2	61.0	1.09
Francisco Liriano	3	0-3	0-2-1	34.7	1.09
Hector Santiago	2	2-0	2-0-0	60.0	1.10
Totals	68	36-32	27-26-15

In superclutch games, Peavy’s game score has been better than his overall average, while Sale’s has been lower.

Here’s something a little scary, though. Check out the first- and second-half splits per clutch starts.

Season	Clutch GS	White Sox Record	Pitcher Record	Average Game Score	Average Leverage
First Half	35	22-13	15-10-10	59.3	0.94
Second Half	18	7-11	5-9-4	46.7	1.04

QS AWOL: Sale's Aug. 12 gem is the South Siders' the only clutch quality
 start out of the rotation in nearly a month. (Dennis Wierbicki/USP)

While the White Sox were stellar in clutch starts in the first half—at one time, the team won 10 straight clutch games in May and June—that success hasn't been sustained. And with as many as 27 more clutch games this month, the significant faltering from every White Sox starter in clutch games is very worrisome.

Just seven of 18 clutch starts achieved a score of more than 50, and there have been just two clutch quality starts in the last eight opportunities). Sale's win nearly on August 12 vs. the Oakland A's remains the regular rotation's only clutch quality start in nearly a month.

It's not the roof caving in at Comerica that's creating such a huge challenge for the White Sox, it's the faltering of their core starters. It's going to be a massive challenge to the rotation to regroup and muster a finishing kick as the Dog Days start howling.

Given that starting pitching has been the best aspect of this White Sox team outside of an uncanny ability to tap out clutch RBI, this shift from cool to crazed by the starters in the clutch should make any White Sox fan plenty edgy.